Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WalterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Shaw doubled to left, Kelly scored.4–7
- 7Shaw doubled to left, Hoerner scored and Kelly scored.3–7
- 5Hoerner homered to left center (383 feet).1–7
- 4Smith homered to left center (398 feet), Paredes scored and Altuve scored.0–7
- 3Diaz homered to left center (377 feet), Smith scored and Meyers scored.0–4
- 3Caratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Altuve scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML CHC +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 3.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · HOU: Brandon Walter: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +1 Elo | CHC 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 30–132nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301543 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–41 | 40–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–26 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 12–15 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 45–36 | 33–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–3 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.