Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Rafael MarchanBatting2-3
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Astros- Cam SmithBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith singled to left, Paredes scored, Altuve to second.1–2
- 8Marsh hit sacrifice fly to right, Stott scored.1–1
- 2Diaz singled to center, Meyers scored, Smith to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML PHI +125 / HOU -150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -135
- PHI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +17 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +22 Elo | HOU 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 29–132nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–41 | 40–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 23–31 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44 | 33–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–4 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.