New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blade TidwellPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castellanos homered to center (428 feet), Schwarber scored.2–10
- 7Stott doubled to left, Bohm scored, Realmuto scored and Castellanos scored, Stott to third.2–8
- 7Castellanos singled to center, Schwarber scored, Bohm to second.2–5
- 7Bohm singled to right, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.2–4
- 7Turner doubled to right, Marsh scored.2–3
- 6McNeil homered to right (368 feet).2–2
- 6Alonso homered to center (429 feet).1–2
- 4Marsh singled to left, Realmuto scored, Kemp to second.0–2
- 4Kemp grounded into fielder's choice to third, Castellanos scored, Stott out at second, Realmuto to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML NYM +165 / PHI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.4%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -177
- NYM +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +2 | NYM: Blade Tidwell: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +31 Elo | PHI 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.217th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 24–136th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 4th of 301537 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–39 | 36–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 28–33 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 29–46 | 34–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 18–15 PHI in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 33.
- Apr 23PHI 3 @ NYM 4Picked PHI 52%Miss
- Apr 22PHI 1 @ NYM 5Picked PHI 54%Miss
- Apr 21PHI 4 @ NYM 5Picked NYM 54%Hit
- Oct 9PHI 1 @ NYM 4PlayoffsPicked NYM 52%Hit
- Oct 8PHI 2 @ NYM 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Miss
- Oct 6NYM 6 @ PHI 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 57%Hit
- Oct 5NYM 6 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 60%Miss
- Sep 22PHI 1 @ NYM 2Picked PHI 57%Miss