Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-3
- Edward CabreraPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schwarber homered to right center (428 feet).2–1
- 7Stott grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bohm scored, Kemp to second, Kepler out at third.1–1
- 5Fortes reached on infield single to pitcher, Myers scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -145 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +1 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +78 Elo | PHI 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 15–2227th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 7th of 301533 | Elo rating | 144727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–38 | 36–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–32 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 35–24 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 19–15 MIA in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 34.