Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Eric WagamanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lopez hit sacrifice fly to left, Sanoja scored.3–8
- 8Ramírez singled to center, Stowers scored, Edwards to second, Sanoja to third.3–7
- 7J. Sánchez homered to center (415 feet).3–6
- 6Sanoja scored on error, Edwards safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Kepler.3–5
- 6Sanoja tripled to center, Norby scored.3–4
- 6Stowers grounded out to third, Wagaman scored, Norby to third.3–3
- 5Schwarber singled to left, Marsh scored.3–2
- 5Rojas singled to center, Kemp scored, Rojas out stretching at second, Marsh to third.2–2
- 4Turner homered to left (413 feet).1–2
- 2Wagaman homered to center (406 feet), Hernández scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML PHI -175 / MIA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -156
- MIA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −2 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +57 Elo | PHI 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 14–2128th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 144527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–37 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–31 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39 | 36–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 18–14 MIA in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 32.