Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mick AbelPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-4
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bohm singled to left, Marchán scored and Marsh scored, Schwarber to second.5–2
- 8Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to right, Edwards scored.3–2
- 7Turner singled to left, Marsh scored.3–1
- 4Kepler homered to right (389 feet).2–1
- 2Norby singled to center, Stowers scored, Hicks to third.1–1
- 1Turner homered to center (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -120 / MIA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −6 | PHI: Mick Abel: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +75 Elo | PHI 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 14–2028th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 5th of 301534 | Elo rating | 144627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–37 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 26–31 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 34–22 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38 | 36–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 17–14 MIA in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 31.