Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Myers singled to center, Hernández scored.4–2
- 5Norby homered to center (415 feet).4–1
- 4Stott homered to center (396 feet), Kepler scored and Realmuto scored.4–0
- 4Realmuto singled to left, Castellanos scored, Realmuto to second, Kepler to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML PHI -185 / MIA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- MIA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −8 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +83 Elo | PHI 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 15–2127th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 7th of 301532 | Elo rating | 144827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–38 | 36–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–32 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 35–23 |
| Overs–unders | 34–39 | 37–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 18–15 MIA in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 33.