New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Starling MarteBatting2-4
- Paul BlackburnPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching8.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Olson homered to right (412 feet).0–5
- 4Allen walked, Albies scored on Buttó wild pitch.0–4
- 1Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to center, Riley scored.0–3
- 1Verdugo to home on fielding error by catcher Torrens, Riley to third on error.0–2
- 1Verdugo to home on fielding error by catcher Torrens, Riley to third on error.0–2
- 1Verdugo to home on fielding error by catcher Torrens, Riley to third on error.0–2
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to center (419 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 63%
- ML NYM +160 / ATL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -170
- NYM +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.2 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +17 | NYM: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +20 Elo | ATL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 20–1515th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 152011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–37 | 31–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 15–5 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–44 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–18 ATL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 27.