New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Ronny MauricioBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Baldwin singled to right, Olson scored.1–7
- 6Olson doubled to right, Allen scored, Riley scored and Acuña Jr. scored.1–6
- 5Albies walked, Riley scored, Baldwin to second, Olson to third.1–3
- 5Baldwin walked, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to second, Riley to third.1–2
- 4Albies singled to center, Olson scored, Ozuna to second.1–1
- 2Mauricio singled to center, Taylor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML NYM +120 / ATL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- NYM +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +2 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +5 Elo | NYM 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 21–1515th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 4th of 301540 | Elo rating | 152211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–38 | 32–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–45 | 31–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–19 ATL in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 28.