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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast

FinalESPN

Away

Mets

46-32

1–7

at

Home

Phillies

47-31

NYM 48%PHI 52%

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Citizens Bank Park · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.

PHI75%50%75%NYMStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mets
  • Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • David PetersonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Phillies
  • Edmundo SosaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Jesus LuzardoPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Lindor homered to right center (405 feet).1–7
  • 7Castellanos doubled to center, Schwarber scored.0–7
  • 7Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Turner scored.0–6
  • 4Sosa homered to right center (430 feet), Realmuto scored and Kemp scored.0–5
  • 4Kemp singled to left, Castellanos scored, Realmuto to third.0–2
  • 4Schwarber homered to center (432 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Phillies 52%

Toss-upHit
NYM 48%PHI 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
PHI 52%
ML NYM +100 / PHI -120
Pre-line forecast
PHI 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI 49%
Ratings vs. market
−3.5 pts
PHI: Elo 48.6%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
PHI -109
NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYM 4.2 – 4.3 PHI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYMPHIWhy
Team rating15381533Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+2−21NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYM +9 EloNYM 51.4%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 50.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 50.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastPHI 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies compared, with each team's league rank
NYMStatPHI
13th of 304.5Runs scored4.78th of 30
2nd of 303.6Runs allowed4.216th of 30
6th of 30+0.9Margin+0.510th of 30
25th of 303–7Last 108–21st of 30
14th of 3019–21Road vs home25–146th of 30
27th of 301493Opponent Elo149129th of 30
4th of 301538Elo rating15336th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MetsPhillies
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYMPHI
Run line37–4037–40
Last 103–76–4
Favorite22–3229–33
Underdog15–88–7
Overs–unders31–4636–41
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYM 19–16 PHI in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 35.