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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast

FinalFox, MLB.TV

Away

Mets

46-31

11–4

at

Home

Phillies

46-31

NYM 53%PHI 47%

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Citizens Bank Park · Fox, MLB.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.

PHI75%50%75%NYMStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mets
  • Juan SotoBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
  • Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Phillies
  • Alec BohmBatting2-3, 1 RBI
  • Mick AbelPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Alvarez homered to left center (452 feet).11–4
  • 8Soto singled to right, Baty scored and Taylor scored, Nimmo to third.10–4
  • 8J. Young homered to right center (441 feet).8–4
  • 6Lindor doubled to second, Alvarez scored and Taylor scored.7–4
  • 5Bohm singled to right, Turner scored.5–4
  • 5Soto homered to right center (437 feet).5–3
  • 3Soto homered to right (391 feet).4–3
  • 3Nimmo homered to right center (369 feet).3–3
  • 3Lindor homered to center (406 feet).2–3
  • 2Kemp scored on Canning wild pitch.1–3
  • 2Kemp scored on Canning wild pitch.1–3
  • 1Kepler grounded out to second, Bohm scored, Castellanos to third.1–2
  • 1Castellanos doubled to right, Schwarber scored, Bohm to third.1–1
  • 1Nimmo homered to center (415 feet).1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mets 53%

Toss-upHit
NYM 53%PHI 47%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
NYM 53%
ML NYM -125 / PHI +105
Pre-line forecast
NYM 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYM 45%
Ratings vs. market
−8.5 pts
NYM: Elo 44.7%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
NYM -114
PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYM 5.4 – 5.1 PHI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYMPHIWhy
Team rating15341537Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−12+4NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Mick Abel: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPHI +37 EloPHI 55.3%
Market-implied ratingsNYM 51.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYM 50.8%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYM 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies compared, with each team's league rank
NYMStatPHI
13th of 304.4Runs scored4.78th of 30
3rd of 303.6Runs allowed4.215th of 30
6th of 30+0.8Margin+0.68th of 30
23rd of 303–7Last 108–21st of 30
16th of 3018–21Road vs home25–136th of 30
26th of 301493Opponent Elo149130th of 30
7th of 301534Elo rating15374th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MetsPhillies
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYMPHI
Run line36–4037–39
Last 102–86–4
Favorite21–3229–33
Underdog15–88–6
Overs–unders30–4635–41
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYM 18–16 PHI in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 34.