Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-3
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Astros- Cooper HummelBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hummel homered to right center (390 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML PHI +130 / HOU -155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +15 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +17 Elo | HOU 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 27–134th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 15318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–40 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–33 | 23–30 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42 | 33–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–2 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.