Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- David FryBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kwan hit sacrifice fly to left, Martínez scored.4–5
- 4Crow-Armstrong tripled to right, Suzuki scored, Crow-Armstrong out stretching at home.3–5
- 4Suzuki singled to center, Shaw scored and Tucker scored.3–4
- 3Crow-Armstrong reached on infield single to shortstop, Tucker scored, Suzuki to third.3–2
- 3Suzuki doubled to left, Happ scored, Tucker to third.3–1
- 3Fry homered to left (366 feet).3–0
- 2Thomas homered to left (373 feet).2–0
- 2Santana homered to left (361 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML CLE +135 / CHC -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +14 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +84 Elo | CHC 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 26–135th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 15452nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–46 | 42–43 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 29–26 |
| Underdog | 26–23 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–47 | 47–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–2 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.