Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Kyle TuckerBatting1-4
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Altuve homered to left (347 feet), Guillorme scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML CHC +115 / HOU -135
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 4.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +18 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +25 Elo | HOU 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3024–19 | Road vs home | 31–142nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301545 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–42 | 41–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–26 | 24–33 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 47–36 | 35–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–4 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.