Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Kyle TuckerBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Astros- Cam SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes homered to left (328 feet).12–3
- 8Busch singled to left, Bruján scored.12–2
- 8Suzuki homered to left center (405 feet), Tucker scored.11–2
- 6Swanson singled to left, Tucker scored.9–2
- 4Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to center, Suzuki scored.8–2
- 4Tucker homered to right (344 feet), McGuire scored and Happ scored.7–2
- 4Happ singled to right, Shaw scored, McGuire to third.4–2
- 4Hoerner homered to left (351 feet).3–2
- 4Busch homered to left center (358 feet).2–2
- 3Smith homered to left center (385 feet), Meyers scored.1–2
- 1Busch walked, Tucker scored, Swanson to second, Crow-Armstrong to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML CHC -105 / HOU -115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −2 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +32 Elo | HOU 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–19 | Road vs home | 31–132nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301541 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–42 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–26 | 24–32 |
| Underdog | 12–16 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 46–36 | 34–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–4 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.