Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kelly hit sacrifice fly to right, Swanson scored.2–5
- 6Suzuki homered to left center (378 feet).2–4
- 4Martínez hit sacrifice fly to right, Thomas scored.2–3
- 4Jones singled to center, Santana scored, Thomas to third.1–3
- 2Kelly doubled to left, Busch scored and Swanson scored, Kelly safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Martínez.0–3
- 2Busch singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Swanson to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 64%
- ML CLE +165 / CHC -200
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -177
- CLE +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 4.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +79 Elo | CHC 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 25–136th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–45 | 41–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 28–26 |
| Underdog | 26–22 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46 | 47–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–1 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.