St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting1-1
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Pham singled to left, Cruz scored, Hayes to second.0–7
- 5Hayes singled to center, N. Gonzales scored and Reynolds scored, Cruz to third.0–6
- 5N. Gonzales doubled to right, McCutchen scored, Reynolds to third.0–4
- 5Horwitz doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored and Bart scored.0–3
- 1Horwitz homered to right center (408 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- STL: Elo 54.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −11 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +33 Elo | STL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 23–2119th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15161st of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 147424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–39 | 41–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 29–15 | 34–26 |
| Overs–unders | 45–40 | 37–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 16–16 PIT in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 32.