New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Luis TorrensBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Horwitz hit sacrifice fly to right, Frazier scored.1–12
- 8Canario walked, Davis scored, McCutchen to second, Frazier to third.1–11
- 7Cruz homered to right (366 feet), Hayes scored.1–10
- 5Pham singled to left, Hayes scored.1–8
- 5Reynolds homered to center (421 feet).1–7
- 5Torrens homered to right center (388 feet).1–6
- 2McCutchen hit sacrifice fly to left, Davis scored.0–6
- 1Pham homered to right (356 feet).0–5
- 1Cruz homered to right (398 feet), Hayes scored.0–4
- 1Hayes singled to center, McCutchen scored and Reynolds scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -145 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | NYM: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +37 Elo | NYM 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 20th of 3019–24 | Road vs home | 22–2121st of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15161st of 30 |
| 9th of 301528 | Elo rating | 147024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–44 | 40–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders | 35–49 | 36–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–8 PIT in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.