Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting5-5, 2 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kiner-Falefa tripled to right, Pham scored.5–4
- 5Yelich homered to right (366 feet), Frelick scored.4–4
- 5N. Gonzales singled to right, Reynolds scored, N. Gonzales out stretching at second.4–2
- 4Durbin hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored, Turang to third.3–2
- 4Turang singled to left, Yelich scored, Contreras to second.3–1
- 4Pham homered to center (416 feet), Hayes scored.3–0
- 1N. Gonzales doubled to left, Reynolds scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML PIT +140 / MIL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −6 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft (no track record yet) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +88 Elo | MIL 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–27 | Road vs home | 23–1511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 24th of 301464 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–42 | 40–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–18 | 16–21 |
| Underdog | 30–24 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–47 | 31–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 13–17 MIL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 30.