Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Davis grounded into fielder's choice to third, Horwitz scored, Frazier to second, N. Gonzales out at third.3–2
- 6Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Haggerty scored.3–1
- 6Seager singled to right, Smith scored, Haggerty to third.2–1
- 5Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, Davis scored.1–1
- 3Higashioka singled to center, Duran scored on error, Higashioka to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML TEX -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- TEX -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −10 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +12 Elo | TEX 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3014–23 | Road vs home | 19–2023rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15141st of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Elo rating | 146324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–40 | 36–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–24 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders | 25–51 | 31–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–2 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.