Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jung grounded out to pitcher, A. García scored, Carter to second, Duran to third.6–2
- 7A. García doubled, Semien scored.5–2
- 5Seager homered to right (377 feet).4–2
- 4Frazier singled to right, Horwitz scored, Triolo to second, Bart to third.3–2
- 4Bart singled to left, N. Gonzales scored, Horwitz to second.3–1
- 4A. García homered to left center (418 feet).3–0
- 1Haggerty scored on Burrows wild pitch.2–0
- 1Haggerty scored on Burrows wild pitch.2–0
- 1Haggerty singled to right, Smith scored, Haggerty safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Cruz.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 61%
- ML TEX -175 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +1 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 26th of 3013–23 | Road vs home | 19–1922nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15131st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301494 | Elo rating | 146524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–40 | 36–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 30–23 |
| Overs–unders | 24–51 | 30–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–2 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.