Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Tommy PhamBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Horwitz doubled to right, Frazier scored.2–4
- 7Pham singled to left, Cruz scored, Pham to second.1–4
- 2Yelich singled to left, Haase scored, Frelick to second.0–4
- 2Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to second, Durbin scored, Haase third.0–3
- 2Haase doubled to center, Turang scored, Durbin to third.0–2
- 2Ortiz grounded out to pitcher, Collins scored, Durbin to second, Turang to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 50%
- ML PIT -110 / MIL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 3.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −1 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +75 Elo | MIL 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–28 | Road vs home | 24–1611th of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 24th of 301464 | Elo rating | 15364th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–43 | 41–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–18 | 17–22 |
| Underdog | 31–25 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–47 | 33–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 14–18 MIL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 32.