Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Frelick singled to right, Collins scored, Ortiz to third.3–9
- 8Ortiz grounded into fielder's choice to first, Monasterio scored, Durbin out at second, Collins to third.3–8
- 6N. Gonzales homered to left center (395 feet), McCutchen scored and Reynolds scored.3–7
- 5Chourio scored on Darrell-Hicks wild pitch.0–7
- 5Chourio scored on Darrell-Hicks wild pitch.0–7
- 4Ortiz homered to left center (398 feet).0–6
- 4Durbin homered to left (387 feet), Turang scored and Collins scored.0–5
- 3Ortiz homered to left center (397 feet), Durbin scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 65%
- ML PIT +175 / MIL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -186
- PIT +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +96 Elo | MIL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–27 | Road vs home | 23–1613th of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 24th of 301466 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–42 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–18 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 31–24 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–47 | 32–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 14–17 MIL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 31.