New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon WaddellPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reynolds doubled to right, Canario scored and McCutchen scored.2–9
- 8McCutchen singled to right, Hayes scored and Horwitz scored, Canario to third.2–7
- 8Kiner-Falefa grounded out to third, Davis scored, Hayes to second, Horwitz to third.2–5
- 8Hayes singled to right, N. Gonzales scored, Horwitz to second, Davis to third.2–4
- 5Nimmo singled to right, Alonso scored.2–3
- 2Frazier hit sacrifice fly to center, Horwitz scored, Hayes to third.1–3
- 2Hayes singled to center, Bart scored, Horwitz to second.1–2
- 2Bart singled to center, Cruz scored.1–1
- 1Soto singled to right, Lindor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -150 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | NYM: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +40 Elo | NYM 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 21–2122nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 8th of 301532 | Elo rating | 146624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–43 | 39–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–33 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 34–49 | 35–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–7 PIT in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.