New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pham singled to center, Canario scored.1–9
- 6Reynolds homered to right (402 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and Pham scored.1–8
- 5Hayes doubled to right, Reynolds scored.1–5
- 4Soto homered to center (416 feet).1–4
- 2Pham grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Canario scored, Kiner-Falefa out at second.0–4
- 2Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Triolo scored, Canario to third.0–3
- 2Canario doubled to right, Hayes scored, Triolo to third.0–2
- 2Triolo singled to left, Bart scored, Hayes to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -145 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +62 Elo | NYM 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 20–2123rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 146224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–42 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–32 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 34–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–6 PIT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 16.