Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Soto homered to left center (412 feet), Nimmo scored.3–2
- 3Murphy hit sacrifice fly to left, Olson scored.3–0
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to center (419 feet).2–0
- 2Harris II hit sacrifice fly to right, Albies scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML ATL -155 / NYM +130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 47.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- NYM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −7 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +20 Elo | NYM 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–26 | Road vs home | 27–101st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 11th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–42 | 37–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–34 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–45 | 31–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 20–9 NYM in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 29.