Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4
- Bryce ElderPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Edwards singled to right, Fortes scored.3–5
- 6Verdugo grounded into fielder's choice to first, Baldwin scored, Albies out at second.3–4
- 5Myers singled to left, Lopez scored, Wagaman to third.2–4
- 5Lopez singled to center, J. Sánchez scored.2–3
- 3Lopez singled to center, Edwards scored.2–2
- 3Baldwin singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to third.2–1
- 2Stowers homered to center (415 feet).1–1
- 1Riley singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML ATL -160 / MIA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +64 Elo | ATL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–25 | Road vs home | 16–2427th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 11th of 301525 | Elo rating | 144627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–41 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–33 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders | 31–44 | 37–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 20–10 MIA in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 30.