Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting1-3
- Eury PerezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin homered to right center (398 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Ozuna scored.7–0
- 8Harris II grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Baldwin scored, White out at second.4–0
- 5Riley singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.3–0
- 5Acuña Jr. doubled to left, Allen scored.2–0
- 1Ozuna doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML ATL -155 / MIA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +10 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +28 Elo | ATL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.128th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 3012–25 | Road vs home | 16–2327th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 11th of 301522 | Elo rating | 144927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–41 | 38–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 31–43 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 19–10 MIA in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 29.