Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Didier FuentesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley homered to center (430 feet).2–6
- 7Ramírez singled to center, Edwards scored, Lopez to third.1–6
- 6Wagaman hit a ground rule double, Stowers scored, Myers to third.1–5
- 4Olson singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Riley to second.1–4
- 3Ramírez homered to left (436 feet), Edwards scored and Lopez scored.0–4
- 2Hicks singled to left, Stowers scored, Hicks to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -150 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | ATL: Didier Fuentes (no track record yet) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +51 Elo | ATL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3012–24 | Road vs home | 15–2328th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 11th of 301525 | Elo rating | 144627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–40 | 37–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–32 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 36–24 |
| Overs–unders | 31–42 | 37–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 19–9 MIA in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 28.