Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mauricio doubled to right, McNeil scored, J. Young to third.7–4
- 8Riley doubled to left, Olson scored, Ozuna to third.7–3
- 8Olson doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.6–3
- 6Olson singled to right, Harris II scored and White scored, Allen to third.5–3
- 6Allen singled to right, Baldwin scored, Harris II to second, White to third.3–3
- 6White reached on infield single to shortstop, Riley scored, Baldwin to second.2–3
- 6Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Ozuna scored, Riley to third.1–3
- 4Baty singled to right, Alonso scored and Marte scored, Torrens to third.0–3
- 4McNeil hit sacrifice fly to left, Soto scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML ATL -135 / NYM +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 47.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- NYM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −3 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +16 Elo | NYM 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–26 | Road vs home | 27–111st of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 11th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–43 | 38–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–35 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–46 | 31–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 21–9 NYM in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 30.