Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Didier FuentesPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña Jr. singled to left, Albies scored and Verdugo scored.3–7
- 7Soto homered to center (396 feet).1–7
- 4Nimmo singled to center, Mauricio scored, Senger to second.1–6
- 4Lindor hit sacrifice fly to left, Baty scored on error, Mauricio safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Verdugo.1–5
- 4Baty singled to right, McNeil scored.1–4
- 4Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Alonso scored, McNeil to third.1–3
- 4Soto homered to center (413 feet).1–2
- 4Baldwin homered to center (433 feet).1–1
- 3Mauricio homered to right (378 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML ATL +120 / NYM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -130
- ATL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 5.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +4 | ATL: Didier Fuentes: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +37 Elo | NYM 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 27th of 3015–26 | Road vs home | 27–121st of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 11th of 301526 | Elo rating | 15317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–43 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–35 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 32–46 | 32–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 22–9 NYM in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 31.