Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4
- Grant HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7McNeil singled to center, Soto scored and Alonso scored.0–4
- 5Alonso singled to center, Lindor scored, Nimmo to third.0–2
- 4Taylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Soto scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML ATL +100 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −10 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +26 Elo | NYM 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 27th of 3015–27 | Road vs home | 28–121st of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 11th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15337th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–44 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–35 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–46 | 33–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 22–10 NYM in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 32.