St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-5
- Sonny GrayPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Tommy PhamBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Horwitz singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored.0–5
- 7Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Hayes scored and Pham scored.0–4
- 7Pham singled to left, N. Gonzales scored, Hayes to second.0–2
- 2Pham singled to left, Cruz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML STL -125 / PIT +105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- STL: Elo 54.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 3.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −3 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +28 Elo | STL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 13th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 25–2118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 14th of 301512 | Elo rating | 147924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–40 | 42–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 30–16 | 34–26 |
| Overs–unders | 45–42 | 37–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 16–18 PIT in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 34.