St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-4
- Andre PallantePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-2
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Davis hit sacrifice fly to center, Hayes scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML STL +125 / PIT -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -135
- STL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +14 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +8 Elo | STL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 24–2118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 147724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–40 | 42–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 8–18 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 34–26 |
| Overs–unders | 45–41 | 37–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 16–17 PIT in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 33.