Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Nootbaar homered to right (369 feet).2–4
- 3Burleson doubled to right, Winn scored.2–3
- 3Donovan homered to right (391 feet), Scott II scored.2–2
- 3García Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Abrams scored, Wood out at second.2–0
- 3Wood singled to right, Young scored, Abrams to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- STL 67%
- ML WSH +195 / STL -235
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- STL: Elo 61.4%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -207
- WSH +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +81 Elo | STL 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 24th of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 26–1711th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301455 | Elo rating | 150517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–44 | 48–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–18 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 44–26 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 47–43 | 48–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–11 STL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.