St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-3
- Matt SvansonPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Suzuki homered to right center (405 feet).0–11
- 4McGuire grounded out to shortstop, Hoerner scored.0–10
- 4Hoerner tripled to left, Swanson scored.0–9
- 3Suzuki doubled to left, Shaw scored.0–8
- 3Tucker hit sacrifice fly to center, McGuire scored, Shaw to third.0–7
- 3Happ grounded out to first, Hoerner scored, Shaw to second, McGuire to third.0–6
- 3Shaw grounded into fielder's choice to third, Swanson scored on throwing error by third baseman Saggese, McGuire to second, Hoerner to third.0–5
- 3McGuire singled to right, Busch scored, Hoerner to second, Swanson to third.0–4
- 2Tucker singled to center, Hoerner scored and Shaw scored, Happ to third.0–3
- 1Crow-Armstrong singled to left, Tucker scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 64%
- ML STL +170 / CHC -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -181
- STL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +7 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +70 Elo | CHC 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 29–144th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15472nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–42 | 43–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–25 | 30–29 |
| Underdog | 31–17 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 47–43 | 50–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 15–17 CHC in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 32.