St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki doubled to center, Tucker scored.8–6
- 8Pozo homered to left (419 feet), Nootbaar scored and Gorman scored.8–5
- 8Gorman singled to left, Saggese scored, Nootbaar to third.5–5
- 8Burleson homered to center (426 feet).4–5
- 7Kelly homered to left (395 feet).3–5
- 6Busch scored on Leahy wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Leahy.3–4
- 6Busch scored on Leahy wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Leahy.3–4
- 6Hoerner singled to center, Kelly scored, Busch to third.3–3
- 4Happ grounded out to third, Hoerner scored, Shaw to third.3–2
- 4Gorman homered to center (420 feet).3–1
- 2Busch homered to center (402 feet).2–1
- 1Saggese singled to right, Donovan scored, Contreras scored. Burleson to third. Saggese safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Tucker.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML STL +140 / CHC -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.3 – 6.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +15 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Pomeranz: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +74 Elo | CHC 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 29–133rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15492nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–42 | 43–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–25 | 30–28 |
| Underdog | 30–17 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 46–43 | 49–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 14–17 CHC in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 31.