Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Brady HouseBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Shinnosuke OgasawaraPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lile singled to right, House scored.6–4
- 9Rafaela homered to left center (407 feet).6–3
- 7García Jr. walked, Lowe scored, Adams to second, Bell to third.5–3
- 7González hit sacrifice fly to right, Rafaela scored.5–2
- 3House singled to left, DeJong scored, Bell to second.4–2
- 3DeJong doubled to left, Rosario scored.4–1
- 1Story homered to left center (429 feet), Refsnyder scored.4–0
- 1Refsnyder doubled to center, Anthony scored.2–0
- 1Anthony singled to right, Eaton scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 66%
- ML BOS -225 / WSH +185
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.0%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -197
- WSH +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +11 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Shinnosuke Ogasawara (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +35 Elo | BOS 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 20th of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 18–2728th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Elo rating | 145627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–44 | 46–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 2–18 |
| Underdog | 27–13 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 44–46 | 46–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–3 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.