Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Frelick homered to right center (391 feet).1–3
- 4Collins singled to left, Chourio scored, Vaughn thrown out at third.1–2
- 4Vaughn singled to center, Contreras scored, Chourio to third.1–1
- 1Ohtani homered to center (431 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 50%
- ML LAD -110 / MIL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 50.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -100
- LAD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +5 Elo | MIL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 28–179th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 1st of 301553 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–52 | 48–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–47 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 28–18 |
| Overs–unders | 53–39 | 38–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–5 MIL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.