Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chourio doubled to left, Yelich scored.6–5
- 5Lopez homered to left center (391 feet), J. Sánchez scored.5–5
- 4Norby homered to right center (409 feet).5–3
- 4Ortiz singled to right, Collins scored and Durbin scored.5–2
- 4Durbin singled to center, Chourio scored, Collins to third.3–2
- 3Edwards scored on throwing error by second baseman Turang, J. Sánchez safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Priester, J. Sánchez safe at second on error.2–2
- 3Contreras doubled to center, Ortiz scored.2–1
- 3Frelick hit sacrifice fly to center, Durbin scored, Ortiz to third.1–1
- 1Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Edwards scored, J. Sánchez out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -145 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −7 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +61 Elo | MIL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 19–2527th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 146425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–41 | 48–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 46–25 |
| Overs–unders | 36–51 | 42–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–7 MIA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.