Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wallner homered to center (430 feet).1–4
- 3J. Sánchez singled to center, Edwards scored.0–4
- 1Ramírez homered to left center (425 feet), Lopez scored.0–3
- 1Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Edwards scored, J. Sánchez out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 50%
- ML MIN -110 / MIA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +15 Elo | MIN 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–28 | Road vs home | 18–2527th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Elo rating | 146225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–40 | 47–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 46–25 |
| Overs–unders | 40–46 | 42–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–5 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.