Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ramírez singled to right, Lopez scored.8–7
- 9Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Myers scored.7–7
- 8Hicks singled to center, Ramírez scored.6–7
- 8Lopez homered to right (375 feet), Hernández scored.5–7
- 6Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, McCann scored.3–7
- 4Marte homered to left (348 feet), McCann scored and Perdomo scored.3–6
- 4Perdomo singled to right, McCarthy scored, McCann to second.3–3
- 4McCann singled to right, Grichuk scored, McCarthy to third.3–2
- 3Wagaman doubled to left, Stowers scored.3–1
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Perdomo scored.2–1
- 1Ramírez hit a ground rule double, J. Sánchez scored, Lopez to third.2–0
- 1Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Edwards scored on error, J. Sánchez safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Perdomo.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 60%
- ML MIA +140 / ARI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 61.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 5.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −3 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +79 Elo | ARI 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 20–1920th of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 26th of 301458 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–37 | 42–39 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 23–27 |
| Underdog | 42–25 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40 | 43–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–9 ARI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.