Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ramos singled to right, Koss scored.8–5
- 10Norby hit sacrifice fly to center, Hernández scored.8–4
- 10Hernández doubled to center, Lopez scored and Winkler scored, Hernández to third.7–4
- 10Lopez singled to center, Fortes scored, Hicks to second.5–4
- 9Bailey singled to left, Schmitt scored, Bailey to second, Lee thrown out at home.4–4
- 9Adames hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored, Lee to second, Schmitt to third.4–3
- 8Hernández singled to center, Ramírez scored and Hicks scored.4–2
- 5Koss hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.2–2
- 4Lopez doubled to center, Ramírez scored and Stowers scored, Lopez out stretching at third.2–1
- 1Yastrzemski homered to right (345 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SF 66%
- ML MIA +180 / SF -215
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SF: Elo 62.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -191
- MIA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +90 Elo | SF 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 25–158th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301450 | Elo rating | 151414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–37 | 34–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 13–35 |
| Underdog | 39–25 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40 | 37–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–8 SF in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.