Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- Christian KossBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Edwards doubled to left, Norby scored.4–2
- 5Koss homered to left (376 feet), Schmitt scored.3–2
- 3Lopez singled to center, J. Sánchez scored.3–0
- 2Norby singled to left, Wagaman scored, Norby to second.2–0
- 2Wagaman doubled to center, Stowers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 62%
- ML MIA +150 / SF -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SF: Elo 61.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −8 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +78 Elo | SF 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 25–147th of 30 |
| 6th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 27th of 301448 | Elo rating | 151714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–37 | 34–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 13–34 |
| Underdog | 38–25 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 37–39 | 37–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–8 SF in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.