Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith singled to center, Herrera scored and Thomas scored, Perdomo to third.9–8
- 9Perdomo walked, Grichuk scored, Herrera to second, Thomas to third.9–6
- 9Lopez homered to center (429 feet), J. Sánchez scored.9–5
- 8Hernández homered to left center (392 feet).7–5
- 7Thomas homered to right center (410 feet).6–5
- 6Sanoja tripled to center, Norby scored.6–4
- 6Stowers homered to right (401 feet).5–4
- 5Perdomo homered to right center (403 feet), Herrera scored.4–4
- 5McCarthy homered to right (415 feet).4–2
- 5Lopez reached on infield single to pitcher, Norby scored and Sanoja scored on throwing error by pitcher Kelly, Lopez to second, Edwards safe at third on error.4–1
- 4Stowers doubled to center, Ramírez scored.2–1
- 4Ramírez doubled to left, Lopez scored.1–1
- 3Thomas hit sacrifice fly to right, McCarthy scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML MIA +145 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 62.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -156
- MIA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +88 Elo | ARI 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 20–1819th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 151911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–37 | 42–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 23–26 |
| Underdog | 41–25 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–40 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–9 ARI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.