Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez singled to center, J. Sánchez scored, Lopez to third.12–5
- 8Lopez singled to right, Edwards scored, J. Sánchez to second.11–5
- 8Edwards doubled to right, Myers scored and Norby scored.10–5
- 5Norby singled to left, Wagaman scored.8–5
- 5Wagaman doubled to center, Lopez scored and J. Sánchez scored.7–5
- 4Wisely doubled to right, Adames scored and Koss scored.5–5
- 4Adames singled to left, Lee scored.5–3
- 3Devers homered to center (438 feet), Knizner scored.5–2
- 3Ramírez homered to left center (443 feet), J. Sánchez scored.5–0
- 1Stowers homered to center (440 feet), Lopez scored and Ramírez scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 62%
- ML MIA +155 / SF -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- SF: Elo 58.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -166
- MIA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.2 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −11 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +57 Elo | SF 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 25–168th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301453 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–37 | 34–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 13–36 |
| Underdog | 40–25 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40 | 38–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–8 SF in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.