Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-4
- Shane SmithPitching2.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perdomo hit a ground rule double, Grichuk scored, Herrera to third.10–0
- 9Herrera singled to right, Vargas scored, Grichuk to second.9–0
- 5Herrera singled to center, Grichuk scored, Thomas to third.8–0
- 4Smith homered to right center (416 feet).7–0
- 4Marte homered to right (377 feet).6–0
- 2Smith homered to right (389 feet), Herrera scored and Perdomo scored.5–0
- 1Naylor doubled to right, Marte scored and Perdomo scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML ARI -145 / CHW +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 61.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.0 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −9 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +84 Elo | ARI 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 10th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 16–2126th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 141329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–37 | 46–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–25 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 46–31 |
| Overs–unders | 40–37 | 37–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–2 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.