Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting4-6, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching4.2 IP, 9 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ritter hit sacrifice fly to left, Doyle scored.14–8
- 8Grichuk hit sacrifice fly to right, Suárez scored.14–7
- 7Marte doubled to center, Herrera scored and Vargas scored.13–7
- 6Suárez homered to left (389 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.11–7
- 5Vargas homered to left (449 feet), Tawa scored.9–7
- 5Suárez homered to left center (405 feet).7–7
- 4Goodman doubled to left, Beck scored and Freeman scored, Goodman to third.6–7
- 4Freeman singled to right, Ritter scored, Beck to third.6–5
- 4Moniak homered to right center (452 feet), Doyle scored.6–4
- 4McMahon homered to right center (467 feet).6–2
- 4Marte homered to left (449 feet), Tawa scored and Vargas scored.6–1
- 4Vargas singled to left, Grichuk scored, Tawa to second.3–1
- 3Freeman singled to right, Ritter scored.2–1
- 2Herrera doubled to left, Grichuk scored.2–0
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Marte scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 59%
- ML ARI -160 / COL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 62.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -145
- COL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +87 Elo | ARI 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 7–2730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15132nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 139630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–35 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders | 39–35 | 32–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 21–8 COL in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 29.