Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Randal GrichukBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Moniak homered to right (385 feet), Farmer scored and Fulford scored.2–4
- 5Fulford singled to center, Doyle scored, Farmer to second.2–1
- 4Grichuk singled to right, Naylor scored.2–0
- 2Grichuk hit sacrifice fly to left, Naylor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 59%
- ML ARI -160 / COL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 65.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -145
- COL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.7 – 5.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −9 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +113 Elo | ARI 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 66.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 7–2930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15131st of 30 |
| 12th of 301521 | Elo rating | 139330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–36 | 36–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–24 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 34–38 |
| Overs–unders | 40–36 | 33–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 23–8 COL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 31.