Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Josh NaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa homered to left center (385 feet).3–7
- 8Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Smith scored.3–6
- 7Meidroth hit sacrifice fly to center, M. Taylor scored, Noda to second.2–6
- 6Sosa singled to right, Teel scored.2–5
- 4Sosa homered to left (379 feet), Teel scored.2–4
- 1Teel singled to center, Vargas scored.2–2
- 1Benintendi homered to right center (390 feet).2–1
- 1Naylor homered to right (361 feet), Perdomo scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 58%
- ML ARI -155 / CHW +130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 62.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -140
- CHW +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +1 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +86 Elo | ARI 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 16–2327th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 12th of 301523 | Elo rating | 140929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–37 | 46–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–25 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 46–33 |
| Overs–unders | 41–38 | 38–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–2 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.